A Brief History of USB 3.0

USB 3.0 is coming, and the hour approaches when the computer and electronics industries can sink their collective teeth into a new, faster USB interface for the first time in ten years. USB 2.0, with 480Mbps High speed, launched in April 2000, and USB 3.0, with 4.8Gbps Super Speed, will launch in the first consumer devices in early 2010.

2007: Initial announcement

In September 2007, at the Intel Developer Forum, Intel's Pat Gelsinger announced the forthcoming development of USB 3.0 to succeed USB 2.0. The new standard, we were told, would feature an optical fiber link to supplement the four copper wires which had sufficed for all prior USB connections, boosting speed to 5.0 Gbps. Because the four copper wires were still the same, cable length limitations would remain substantially the same, and, though this wasn't mentioned, USB's limited power transmission capabilities would likely follow suit. 

2008: Revisions, xHCI infighting, and final specification

In January of 2008, the physical connectors of what would become USB 3.0 were unveiled at CES. The optical fiber had been replaced with copper, and a novel system developed to allow backwards compatibility.  The five new pins were situated deeper in the connector than the legacy pins, allowing the deeper new connector to connect the extra pins, while legacy plugs in new sockets, or new plugs in legacy sockets, would use only the original four.  B-style connectors have also been changed to carry more pins, in a way that will allow USB 2.0-styled plugs to fit the new ports, but not vice versa.

2009: Controllers and interoperability

Since then, a number of controllers have been announced. In May of 2009, NEC announced the first standalone USB host controller, which is expected to find its way into add-in cards from many vendors.  Presumably based upon the xHCI, the µPD720200 is a PCIe to USB 3.0 bridge capable of 4.8Gbps speeds, offered in bulk for a mere $15 per chip. NEC promised that the new controller would feature a lower CPU overhead than USB 2.0, and that it would churn out 1 million of the new chip per month by September. 

2010-2013: Proliferation and necessity

All these devices will occupy a profitable but obscure niche until USB 3.0 begins to arrive in desktop and laptop chipsets, which won't happen until the middle of 2010 at least.  Due to their xHCI advantage and general ahead-of-the-curve development cycle, it's likely that Intel will be the first to ship compatible chipsets, although the lead, if it exists will be a matter of months at most.

By this point, as USB 3.0-supporting chipsets will have become the norm and supplies of supporting chips for devices ramp up, penetration will ramp up dramatically.  In 2010, projections run, USB 3.0 will be a minority privilege, but by 2012 45% of all laptops shipped will feature USB 3.0, IDC projects.  In 2013, it's likely that USB 3.0 will attain a dominant market share of 80% or so. 

2013-2018: Maturity and obsolescence

By 2014, USB 3.0 will dominate the market for both controllers and devices. Add-in controllers will be a thing of the past as every major chipset will feature USB 3.0.  Compatibility and speed questions will be as little an issue in the USB 3.0 heyday as they are now in the age of USB 2.0, and a long quiet will emerge, when external device interfaces are a solved problem and the solution is a cheap omnipresent commodity.